Wednesday, November 21, 2012

This Ignored Country is Booming

Emerging markets have been the success story of 2009.

While more developed economies such as the United States and Europe have struggled to recover, countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China are on a roll.

Country (Index)YTD Return
Russia (Micex)+118%
China (Shanghai Composite)+80%
Brazil (Bovespa)+80%
India (Sensex)+77%
U.S. (S&P 500)+23%

Another emerging economy is also rocketing. Morgan Stanley Capital International has upgraded this market, and it will make the coveted leap to "developed" market status in May of 2010.

It's Israel. This tiny nation on the Mediterranean Sea might not be the first place that comes to mind when investors think about international diversification, but it should be at the top of the list.

The Tel Aviv 100, a benchmark of Israel's 100 largest stocks, is up +69% this year.

Israel's currency, the shekel, has gained ground against the dollar.

Investors may be reluctant about shouldering political and geographic risk. Israel is surrounded by enemies and has been plagued by the constant threat of violence. Yet that has been true since its founding in 1947, and Israel has nevertheless developed into one of the world's most innovative economies.

Israel's workforce is among the most educated and is renowned for its entrepreneurial spirit. The country has one of the highest numbers of patents filed in the world and is crawling with start-up companies. The World Bank notes it consistently ranks near the top in per capita research and development spending.

  After years of GDP growth at about +5.0%, Israel's economy -- along with the rest of the world -- experienced a mild recession last year. Now, it's rebounding: GDP grew +2.2% in the third quarter of this year and should grow by +2.9% next year, according to a Barclays Capital forecast.

The downturn in Israel was brief enough to make the Bank of Israel the first major central bank to raise short-term borrowing rates, a sign of strength signaling confidence in the economy. The central bank has held the rate steady the past two months, but could announce another rate hike by the end of the year.

Part of Israel's success can be attributed to its status as the Silicon Valley of the Middle East. Tech has been the best performing sector in the market this year, gaining more than +55% compared with the S&P's +23%. About 75% of Israel's exports are technology products, so it should be a prime beneficiary if this trend continues.

Two funds offer the best broad exposure to Israel: iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market (NYSE: EIS), an exchange-traded fund, and First Israel Fund (AMEX: ISL), a closed-end fund.

Each of these funds offers broad exposure to the Israeli market, with both funds holding many of the same securities.

EIS% of PortfolioISL% of Portfolio
Teva Pharmaceuticals21.6Harel Insurance7.9
Israel Chemicals9.9Teva Pharmaceuticals7.7
Check Point Software8.2Israeli Telecom6.4
Bank Lumi7.0Bank Lumi5.8
Bank Hapoalim5.1Bank Hapoalim5.4
Israeli Telecom5.0Israel Chemicals5.3
Nice Systems3.6Shikun & Binui3.2
Partner Communications3.1Israel Corp.2.7
Mizrahi Tefahot Bank2.6Perrigo2.3
Elbit Systems2.6Israel Discount Bank2.3

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