How Low Will This Market Go?

A fall in the euro sent equity and commodity markets into a downward spiral yesterday. Sentiment against the euro strengthened following Germany�s stand that its government is against raising the lending limit for a euro zone bailout.

In response, Italy�s 10-year bond yield rose 7%-plus, and Spain and France saw their bond yields jump as well. The U.S. dollar rose, of course, and the rise was accentuated by a series of better-than-expected economic reports.

Commodities fell sharply in response to the stronger dollar. The CRB Index fell 3.4%, and gold settled at $1,587.70 an ounce, down 4.6%, and silver lost 7.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,823, off 1.1%, the S&P 500 ended at 1,212, down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq closed at 2,539, down 1.55%. The NYSE traded 928 million shares, and the Nasdaq crossed 512 million. Decliners were ahead of advancers on the Big Board by 3-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2-to-1.

Yesterday, every major index violated its near-term support as the dollar rocketed to new highs.

The breakdown of the S&P 500 is significant because it confirmed the failure of the index to break higher at its bearish resistance line (June/July, October and November highs); it turned down from its 200-day moving average — a confirmation that the long-term bear market is intact; and it crushed the near-term support provided by the conjunction of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

The question is: How low will it go?

The answer may surprise you: Not very far, at least initially. There is a broad band of support at 1,124 to 1,225 that will more than likely slow the decline, and the uptrend line of a major trading triangle rests at 1,175.

Additionally, the Fibonacci numbers off of the November low to the December are: 50% = 1,212 (yesterday�s close), 61.8% = 1,200.

Finally, we are approaching the holiday period when trading traditionally slows and volume falls until we enter the New Year.

Yesterday�s higher close in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) confirmed the bull market in the U.S. dollar, and that conclusion is backed by the MACD buy signal. But volume on the breakout is not as high as the average volume of the October sell-off.

Conclusion: The most followed indices have broken from major support levels, indicating that the bear market is intact and that prices should head modestly lower.

But European politicians are no less nimble than our own. When our credit markets were in jeopardy (not that they still aren�t), the Feds sprang TARP, then QE1 and QE2 while dropping interest rates to near zero. And each move was immediately greeted with a rebound in stocks.

The Europeans have followed the same pattern and will, in desperation, scramble to turn an outgoing tide with each attempt triggering a rally in equities. Thus, shorts should expect violent rebounds. Take profits when you can. (Check out my colleague John Jagerson who turned a 67% profit overnight last week.) And protect positions with stop-loss orders.

The trend is down, but expect more volatility and less predictability.