Wedge Partners‘s Brian Blair this morning offers a cautious view of Apple (AAPL) shares, urging investors to avoid the stock for the moment, even though AAPL is “the best name in tech” because of the expected growth in iPhone and iPad sales.
He is “concerned iPad sales may not be as strong as expectations,” and that Apple’s March fiscal Q2 results may therefore disappoint expectations.
The “problem,” according to Blair, is that despite initial weekend sales of 3 million units of the newest iPad, nevertheless, “The iPad is available and it shouldn’t be,” meaning the ease with which he’s observed one can walk into any Apple store and buy one implies perhaps demand is not as strong as it should be.
Online order times are back down to one to two weeks after briefly spiking to two to three weeks after the introduction three weeks ago.
That compares to the iPad 2, which was “much more difficult to get” when it was initially released a year ago, writes Blair.
Blair acknowledges there may be factors that are making iPads plentiful other than slack demand: Apple’s manufacturers may simply be doing a better job of making them, and more people may be buying the thing online, leaving more available inventory at bricks and mortar retail outlets.
Blair doesn’t go any further with that line of thought, but concludes that this quarter’s and this year’s sales could turn out lower than expected:
We had expected around 9-10 million units for March, a lofty number coming off December, but have noted some expectations jumping to the 12 – 13 million unit range for this quarter. Our iPad unit expectations for CY 2012 have been between 56-60 million units and we have believed 60+ million was possible. We now believe that the full year number will likely be at the bottom of that range, possibly lower. We will reassess our unit expectations post Apple�s quarter report.
Apple shares today are down $7.53, or 1.2%, at $610.09.
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