Netflix Worth $100, Oppenheimer Says In Downgrade

Oppenheimer lowered its price target on Netflix to $100 in light of lower subscriber, revenue and margin estimates.

But the firm remains bullish looking 12 to 18 months hence. Netflix (NFLX) shares were up $2.63, or� 3.35%, to $83.57.

Oppenheimer had a target of $185, but revised it after “painstakingly rebuilding our model to reflect new subscriber, revenue and margins metrics, as well as 2012 quarterly estimates.”

Oppenheimer Analyst Jason Helfstein offers the following assumptions on gross additions of customers, and on earnings:

• 4Q 2011 streaming additions of 4.1 million -9% year over year, DVD adds of 400,000, -35%.
• 1Q 2012 streaming additions of 5.0 million -12% year over year, DVD adds 500,000, -21%.
• Negative earnings per share in the first half of 2012 on higher U.S. marketing & international launch costs.
• GAAP earnings of 1 penny in fiscal 2012 and $1.88 in 2013, incorporating big international losses in both years.