Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Consumer Sector Divergence

Below we provide charts of the net earnings estimate revisions for the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors. Net earnings estimate revisions looks at the percentage of stocks in each sector receiving positive earnings revisions versus negative earnings revisions. When the reading is positive, it means more stocks are seeing earnings estimates increase than decrease, and the direction of the reading is the important thing to watch.

As shown below, there has been a big divergence between earnings revisions in the two consumer sectors recently. Analysts are getting more bullish on earnings for discretionary stocks while they're getting more bearish on earnings for staples stocks. Based on this measure, analysts seem to be betting on a continuation of the recovery, even in the face of a struggling market recently.

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