Can Google Continue to Trend Higher?

With shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) trading around $1045, is GOOG an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Google is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people engage with information. The business is based on the following areas: search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. The company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. Google is a search giant with most of the market share, largely because of its execution and delivery. An increasing number of consumers and companies worldwide are coming online, which will surely increase the amount of eyes on the company's ads and, in turn, advertising revenue. At this rate, look for Google to remain on top of the Internet world.

Google agreed to pay $17 million to 37 states this week for evading cookie-blocking controls in Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) Safari browser, but industry experts suggest that the effect the settlement will have on the privacy debate is more significant that than the money penalty itself.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Google stock has has been exploding to the upside in the past several years. The stock is currently trading near all-time highs and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Google is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Google options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Google Options	18.44%	53%	53%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Flat	Average
January Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Google’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Google look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	21.08%	-5.53%	13.60%	17.06%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	11.94%	15.52%	31.23%	24.87%
Earnings Reaction	13.79%	-1.55%	4.43%	5.49%

Google has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Google’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Google stock done relative to its peers, Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and sector?

	Google	Yahoo	Microsoft	Baidu	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	47.88%	82.46%	40.98%	56.27%	57.89%

Google has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Google is an Internet giant that provides valuable search and advertising services to a growing user base worldwide. The company agreed to pay $17 million to 37 states this week for evading cookie-blocking controls in Apple's Safari browser. The stock has been exploding higher in recent years and is currently trading near all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing. However, investors have had conflicting feelings about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Google has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Google to OUTPERFORM.

Aberdeen buys Lloyds fund management unit

LONDON (AP) — Shares in Aberdeen Asset Management have surged after the company struck a deal with Lloyds Banking Group that analysts say will make it Europe's biggest independent fund manager.

In a statement, Aberdeen said it will buy Lloyds' asset management unit Scottish Widows Investment Partnership for around 550 million pounds ($885 million) in shares.

In return, Lloyds — still around one-third owned by the British government following a bailout — will get a 9.9% stake in Aberdeen. The two will also form a long-term strategic partnership whereby Aberdeen will manage assets on behalf of Lloyds.

Lloyds said it will be a "supportive" shareholder and has committed to maintain its initial shareholding in Aberdeen for at least a year, and a third of it for at least three years.

Aberdeen could make a further 100 million pounds cash payout to Lloyds over five years if certain performance criteria are met. The sale, which is expected to be completed early next year following the necessary regulatory approval, does not include Scottish Widows, Lloyds' life, pensions and investment business.

"We are confident that this transaction will deliver considerable additional value to our expanded client base and this will therefore benefit our shareholders," said Martin Gilbert, Aberdeen's chief executive.

Investors cheered the prospect of another 136 billion pounds worth of funds being added to Aberdeen's current portfolio of around 200 billion pounds. Aberdeen shares were up 14.1% to 487 pence in London.

"After the completion of this acquisition Aberdeen Asset Management will become the largest fund management firm in Europe," said Alastair McCaig, an analyst at IG.

For Lloyds, McCaig said the deal is another step the bank has taken to "reorganize its portfolio of exposure." Shares in Lloyds rose 1.4 percent to 76 pence.

Lloyds had to be bailed out by the British taxpayer at the height of the banking crisis in 2008 but has recently shown signs that it is h! ealing. The government recently sold some of its stake in the bank.

More big beer makers are happy to go hoppy

Beer makers, big and small, are tapping into consumer willingness to experiment beyond traditional brews.

Bored with Budweiser? Crack open a new vanilla bourbon-flavored lager from the market leader's "Project 12" limited edition 12-pack, which debuted Monday and is available through the end of the year. Other twists on the traditional Budweiser lager within the pack (four bottles each of the three flavors): a darker, slightly stronger brew and a hoppier one made with Pacific Northwest hops.

Or if you prefer holiday spices, Blue Moon Brewing, which is owned by competitor MillerCoors, has a new Gingerbread Spiced Ale in its brewmasters winter sampler pack, out Saturday. ..

Seasonal and limited-edition beers are not new, but, typically, smaller, independent craft breweries have been the ones more likely to release them. Boston Beer Co., the largest U.S. craft brewery, has its own gingerbread-flavored beer, the Merry Maker stout, in individual 22 oz. bottles, and the cinnamon, ginger and orange peel-infused Winter Lager, in six packs and a winter variety pack, on the way to stores now.. Also just out, the brewery's Utopia, a blended and barrel-aged "extreme" (read: very high alcohol) beer -- only 12,000 bottles were made and each sells for $199.

Also just hitting retail from regional breweries are a new Accumulation White India Pale Ale from New Belgium Brewing Co. (Fort Collins, Colo.) and a Blackout Stout and Christmas Ale from Great Lakes Brewing Co. (Cleveland).

Boston Beer Co. is releasing only 12,000 bottles of its $199 Samuel Adams Utopia, an annual specialty release that is a unique blend of barrel-aged beers, some aged for nearly two decades.(Photo: Boston Beer Co.)

The growing inclination of big brewers! to follow suit suggests that mega-brewers are taking notice of the successful inroads that craft breweries have made in the marketplace. While major brands dominate beer sales, craft beer accounted for 8.5% of the $62 billion spent on beer at retail in 2012, according to market tracking firm Technomic. That's up from 7.5% in 2011.

That growth has not gone unnoticed by big brewers. "They want to play in the craft space ... (because) they think that consumers, particularly Millennials, are looking for new flavors and new brands," says Eric Shepard, vice president and executive editor of Beer Marketer's Insights.

The top 20 beer brands have seen their market share remain basically flat -- up 0.7% in 2012 -- while all other brands combined rose 3.5%, the firm found. Big brewers also failed to capitalize on premium and high-end trends explored readily by wine and spirits makers, Shepard says. "So you have this double push for them to explore the craft space with their own brands."

This is the second year for Budweiser's Project 12, which lets brewmasters from its dozen U.S. breweries collaborate and tinker with new recipes based on the original. While last year's batch resulted in the more full-bodied Budweiser Black Crown being added to the company's year-round lineup, that's not necessarily the plan this year, Budweiser Vice President Brian Perkins says.

And, he says, "we will never pretend to be a craft beer. (With Project 12), it is really about emphasizing the skills and versatility of our brewmasters and how high quality Budweiser is."

Founded in 1995, Blue Moon experimented with flavors, among them a pumpkin beer, beyond its White Belgian Ale flagship, but discontinued them after a few years to focus on the original. Eventually, consumers began contacting the company about the old flavors.

These days, Blue Moon has 18 additional beers that it releases seasonally or for a limited time. "Compared to back then, it's almost like night and day," brewery founder Keith Vi! lla says.! "People are more accepting of different flavors of beer. People are really taking advantage of the Internet and delving in and finding out what these beers are all about."

Blue Moon let fans vote on Facebook for ingredients to be used in a seasonal beer, and Gingerbread Spiced Ale was the result. As for supplies of the limited seasonal, Villa says, "when it's gone, it's gone."

Coors plans a new seasonal citrus light beer next year, and Miller has released Third Shift Amber Lager, created by some of its experimenting brewers. Also in the works is Fortune, a higher alcohol lager. Meanwhile, Anheuser-Busch has its Shock Top brand of three fruit-infused beers and an apple-wheat cider; it also owns Goose Island Beer Co., which just expanded its Vintage Collection of beers barrel-aged with fruit ingredients: the farmhouse ales called Gillian (strawberry, honey and pepper) and Halia (peaches), and 2013 editions of the Lolita (blackberry) and Juliet (raspberry) sour beers.

Craft breweries have grown protective of their turf and are concerned that big brewers may mislead consumers with offshoot product lines and brands -- and unfairly gain growth by using their vast distribution power. The Brewers Association, which conducts the annual Great American Beer Festival in Denver, has proposed that all beers have the parent company name on the label.

Without some transparency "craft beer made by craft brewers may soon be hijacked" just as "homemade" foodstuffs have been by mass-produced supermarket commodities, association president and founder Charlie Papazian wrote recently in The New Brewer magazine.

Samuel Adams' winter favorites sampler 12-pack includes Samuel Adams Winter Lager and Old Fezziwig, both which contain ci! nnamon, g! inger and orange peel, as well as a Cherry Chocolate bock beer, a Juniper India Pale Ale and an unfiltered White Christmas ale.(Photo: Boston Beer Co.)

That's a move that Jim Koch, founder of the Boston Beer Co., and maker of Samuel Adams beers, approves of. "I say, 'We welcome you' and we would hope that you would be proud to put your own name on that (beer),' " he says.

Koch, who recently became the first craft brewer to become a billionaire, himself took flak from craft brewers in the company's early years for initially brewing Samuel Adams Boston Lager under contract at other breweries. That consumers might try big brewers' specialty beers is all part of "this flavor revolution," he says.

"Once you've discovered beer with a lot of flavor it's hard to forget about it," Koch says. "Our drinkers will have a Bud Light, Coors Light or a Miller Lite and they are fine with it. We all eat at really good restaurants and we all occasionally eat at Taco Bell. And they are both good. It's great that the American consumer has choice."

Facebook's Mobile Numbers Wow Investors, but Fickle Teens Cause Worry

On Wednesday afternoon, social giant Facebook  (NASDAQ: FB  ) reported earnings and garnered mixed reactions from investors. On one hand, the mobile business continues to ramp extremely well. Mobile was 49% of ad revenue, or around $880 million in sales, while mobile users continue to rise. Any shred of doubt about Facebook's ability to monetize mobile can now officially be dismissed.

On the other hand, investor attention has turned to teen engagement as a proxy to whether or not Facebook's business is viable in the long-term; Facebook needs to stay relevant with future generations. On this front, the company acknowledged that it saw declining engagement among young teens, with fewer daily active users in this demographic. Additionally, Facebook implied it was hesitant to further increase its ad load in user News Feeds, which had helped drive the quarter's revenue gains in the first place.

In this segment of Tech Teardown, Erin Kennedy discusses Facebook's earnings with Jamal Carnette and Evan Niu, CFA.

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Milevsky Warns: Beware of Annuity Ignorance

Advisors, be very wary of what you read about annuities, for it may be devoid of any meaning.

That warning comes from Moshe Milevsky, just back from a visit to England, where he poured through dusty documents in the British National Archives, examining the actuarial assumptions of the life annuities issued by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 17th and 18th centuries.

While he saw evidence of mispricing that accrued to the disadvantage of the Royal Treasury, when AdvisorOne caught up with him  the subject of discussion was today’s sensationalized characterization of annuities as products of unremitting evil or of unsurpassed virtue.

Back in London’s Globe Theatre, such assessments are typically uttered by “a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more.”

Too often, according to Macbeth or Milevsky, “it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.”

For a little wisdom—make that a lot of wisdom—on understanding retirement income, the York University finance professor and Research magazine contributor cautioned that advisors (and financial journalists even more) should pay particular attention to the first mention of annuities in an article or discussion.

“That opening sentence has got to be clarified before you can have an intelligent conversation about it,” said Milevsky (left), speaking by phone from his office in Toronto.

“Are you talking about a pension that you put money into to get an income out of…or an equity-indexed annuity that functions like a savings account?” he asks, noting there are six or seven types of products that regulators, lawyers and journalists all refer to as annuities but which to economists are all different.

“Imagine if someone came to you asked you, “Do you think ‘funds’ are a good idea?”—the first of many hilarious analogies that emanate from the professor like water flows down Niagra Falls.

What kind of funds—stock funds, bond funds—and what kind of stock fund and whose stock fund, an advisor would respond. “That’s what’s happening,” Milevsky laments.

“It’s like saying all mortgages are bad,” noting the plethora of high-rate, low-rate, floating-rate, teaser-rate products available. “You can’t just condemn an entire industry.”

He notes that the popular financial columnist Jane Bryant Quinn was outspoken in her hostility to “annuities” for years and years until she discovered an annuity product she praised as being good.

“Words matter. Let’s call some pensions and some variable annuities,” Milevsky intones, noting the significant difference between a $200 billion-a-year variable annuity market and a trifling $10 billion in annual sales for income annuities.

To clarify some of the essential distinctions among the different sort of annuities, Milevsky has just published a monograph for the CFA Institute that answers in straightforward question-and-answer format some critical retirement income questions.

That is because even CFAs, despite all their technical financial expertise, don’t understand insurance and the Institute is trying to offer more of a wealth management perspective to CFA designees, Milevsky says.

In one enlightening part of the CFA monograph, Milevsky sorts through the vast scholarly literature that attempts to explain why people should not annuitize: because of high interest rates; high embedded loads and costs; Social Security; even marriage.

He says he’s even seen the argument that if you buy an annuity you will discourage your kids from taking care of you.

“The audience for these arguments are PhDs,” Milevsky cautions, warning that popular press accounts often wildly misinterpret their meaning. Offering another analogy, he says that the medical literature is filled with the notion that exercise is healthy. “Then somebody comes along and says if you have arthritis exercising is very bad for you.”

And then comes a sensation-seeking expert or ignorant journalist to announce: “Exercise is bad for you, you might have arthritis.”

Urging greater sophistication, Milevsky says that yes, there is a huge segment of the population that doesn’t need annuities and we need to understand who is and who is not in that group.

Which brings us to another critical bit of wisdom that Milevsky emphasizes for financial advisors: namely that the diversity of strategies at retirement is magnitudes greater than during the accumulation phase.

“You need to listen very carefully to what your retiring clients’ unique needs are because no portfolio will address the variety of” client goals and balance sheet considerations, he says noting that some portfolios must be tailored to risk aversion, others to liquidity concerns and still others to health conditions.

Milevsky offers his in-laws as an illustration of how basic values shape a client’s portfolio.

“They’re spending much less than they can afford to,” he says, but  would view an annuity that would increase opportunities for current consumption as a “waste of money,” since they are determined to pass their wealth on to their children and grandchildren.

“For my in-laws, dying broke is the ultimate failure,” Milevsky says. “To many baby boomers that’s the objective. So how can you have a portfolio appropriate for [both groups]—one is trying to solve intergenerational problems, the other wants to be sure they spend their last dollar the day they die.”

That is why advisors must work to really understand their clients. “You’ve got to listen,” he says, adding some blunt cautions about an advisor’s age.

“A 35-year-old financial advisor will have a very difficult time having a conversation about life goals,” Milevsky says. “At some point it’s hysterical,” he adds, picturing a young planner with a questionnaire asking a retiring client if he’s had his first heart attack already.

“I’m willing to have a 27-year-old surgeon fix my liver, but in financial planning the intergenerational discussion is not going to work,” he says, since an older person will sense the lack of relevant life experience and void of wisdom.

“You have to have made some money and lost it before you can do a really good job. The multitude of issues that come up in retirement you can’t teach in a course,” the business professor says, expressing open skepticism of his colleagues who teach management courses without having hired people, fired them and sweat over meeting payroll.

“I’m not going to go to a doctor who smokes, a beautician who’s ugly and a financial planner without wealth,” he says.

Besides the variety of client situations, Milevsky points out that there are differences in planners.

Offering another characteristic analogy, he says a health seeker taking a walk through the supermarket aisles with a nutritionist is going to get a basket of fruits, vegetables and other healthy items.

But if he took a tour of the market with a second nutritionist—sure, both would leave out the bacon, but there are going to be differences at the checkout.

“At some point the science ends and the art begins. There is no point at which you’re going to get agreement among experts,” Milevsky says, noting that while all advisors might put some stocks and bonds in your portfolios, there will be differences in proportion and in whether to include annuities, long-term care insurance and the like.

A good advisor will tailor the portfolio to his client’s unique needs, but will also make sure that portfolio items are exercised properly. The academic, whose sideline QWeMA Group consulting firm helps institutional clients like Pacific Life, John Hancock and Principal Financial Group help their advisors and clients optimize the quantitative aspects of portfolio decisions, stresses that “if you bought annuity, make sure you use it properly.”

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3 Reasons Baidu Might Not Be the Best Chinese Play

I'm going to attempt something a little odd today, Fools. Even though Chinese search engine Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU  ) makes up 8.6% of my real-life holdings, I'm going to be giving you three reasons to consider selling Baidu stock today.

Why am I doing this?

Recently, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman visited Fool headquarters in Virginia. While visiting, he talked about how a number of different biases can lead us to believe we can predict the future with relative certainty. In reality, he argued, we're just deluding ourselves.

It got me to thinking about how I don't write enough about the risks of owning the stocks I own. So although I don't plan on selling my Baidu stock anytime soon, I think it's healthy for me to practice and model this behavior.

1. "China" does not equal "America"
Many people, myself included, have often used Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) as a proxy for how Baidu would perform as it matures. Though Google is certainly a force outside the United States, it still got close to half of its revenue stateside last year.

That's important, because it forces me to examine just how different China and the United States are. For starters, there is a vastly different regulatory system in place. While Google might sometimes find itself in the crosshairs of public scrutiny for privacy reasons, Baidu is a whole different story. If the Chinese government wants information from the company, it'll comply without thinking twice. That's why Google decided to exit the country years ago.

Just as important is the evolution of mobile advertising. While Google has been able to develop a platform that delivers more ads at a lower price, Baidu is still working on its strategy. There's no way to tell if Chinese smartphone users will operate the same way Americans do, and it's yet to be seen if Baidu's massive investment in developing an effective mobile strategy will ever pay off.

2. Slowing Chinese economy
It's no secret that demand from China has played a big role in helping the global economy pick itself up off the mat. Sooner or later, though, that growth has to slow.

Signs are suggesting that slower growth in China will arrive sooner than some are ready for. Manufacturing is actually contracting, and as the standard of living goes up for workers, companies are finding less incentive to set up shop in the Mainland. This means leaving for greener pastures in countries where wages are lower.

Add all of this up, and it could mean that fewer businesses will be paying Baidu to advertise on its platform, which could significantly bite into revenue growth.

3. Competition
Finally, we get to a company that's been a real thorn in Baidu's side for the past year: Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) . Though Qihoo started out focusing primarily on Internet security products, it made a splash into the search game and has been rapidly accumulating market share ever since.

At the same time, it appears that Qihoo is offering companies better bang for their buck, as ads hosted on the Qihoo platform are much cheaper than they are on Baidu's. Though Baidu still holds a commanding lead in search market share, should that start to decline, Baidu could get into an advertising price war with Qihoo, which would have significant implications for Baidu's bottom line.

How to approach China
While I openly admit all of these risks are valid and worthy of your consideration, I think Baidu is doing the smart thing by spending money today to build a moat that will last into tomorrow. The fact that shares are trading for just 19 times earnings tells me that a lot of pessimism is already baked into Baidu's stock as well.

But if you're looking for a safer, less appreciated way to approach China, consider it's booming auto industry. China is already the world's largest auto market -- and it's set to grow even bigger in the coming years. A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market," names two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free -- just click here for instant access.

4 Stocks Making Big Moves

The following video is from Wednesday's Investor Beat, in which host Chris Hill and analysts Jason Moser and Charly Travers dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

Adobe Systems' (NASDAQ: ADBE  )  second-quarter profits fall 66%. Shares of NVIDIA  (NASDAQ: NVDA  ) hit a new 52-week high. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) issues its first-ever recall. And Men's Wearhouse (NYSE: MW  ) fires company founder and pitchman George Zimmer. In this installment of Investor Beat, Jason and Charly discuss four stocks making big moves.

NVIDIA was ahead of the curve launching its mobile Tegra processor, but investing gains haven't followed as expected, with the company struggling to gain momentum in the smartphone market. The Motley Fool's brand-new premium report examines NVIDIA's stumbling blocks, but also homes in on opportunities that many investors are overlooking. We'll help you sort fact from fiction to determine whether NVIDIA is a buy at today's prices. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this comprehensive report.

The relevant video segment can be found between 1:54 and 4:09.

GM Tries Again to Catch Ford's Fusion

The refreshed 2014 Chevy Malibu. Photo credit: General Motors

Here it is, folks: The hastily revised 2014 Chevrolet Malibu, just unveiled on Friday. What do you think?

If you've been paying attention, you might think it strange that General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) is revising the Malibu now. After all, GM's midsized mainstay was all-new just last year.

Don't most automakers wait a few years before revising their products? And doesn't GM have enough other product priorities – like launching its all-new pickup trucks – to keep it busy right now?

Yes, they do, and yes they do. But the Malibu is a special case, and – in a big break from past practice at General Motors – GM's new management wasn't willing to wait.

That's a big deal. Let's take a closer look.

An all-new Chevy that didn't make the grade
The Malibu is – or at least, is supposed to be – General Motors' (NYSE: GM  ) high-volume midsized sedan. But despite the fact that the Malibu that's at Chevy dealers today was all-new for the 2013 model year, its sales haven't been great.

The 2013 Malibu isn't bad, but it wasn't good enough. Photo credit: General Motors

Why? Because it isn't up to snuff. Specifically, it isn't all that competitive with Ford's (NYSE: F  ) white-hot Fusion sedan and Honda's (NYSE: HMC  ) hot-selling new Accord, both of which are stealing sales in a big way from the longtime class-leader, Toyota's (NYSE: TM  ) Camry – and from the Malibu.

Sales of Ford's Fusion have boomed this year. Photo credit: Ford Motor Co.

Through April, U.S. sales of the new Malibu were down 11.9% from the same period in 2012. Meanwhile, the Fusion and Accord were up 25% and 26%, respectively. That has dropped the Malibu to fifth place in the midsized sedan rankings, behind the Accord, the Camry, the Fusion, and Nissan's (NASDAQOTH: NSANY  ) Altima.

That's not good enough for GM's current leadership. That's why they ordered a high-speed do-over.

Instead of excuses, a fast facelift
The current Malibu isn't a bad car, really. But reviewers weren't all that impressed, saying that the interior was kind of cheap-looking and a little cramped, the exterior styling was bland, and it wasn't all that much fun to drive.

It's clear that GM heard the criticisms. As you can see in the photos, the overhauled 2014 Malibu gets a bolder face, similar to that on the new full-sized Chevy Impala sedan (which is getting very good reviews, by the way).

GM also added more rear-seat room, increasing "knee room" by over an inch by redesigning the seats, spiffed up other parts of the interior, gave it a little more power, and tweaked the suspension for "more refined" (their words) handling.

Will it be enough?

I don't know yet. But just the fact that it happened at all is significant.

You think GM hasn't changed? Think again.
GM wants – no, make that needs – to do better than "not bad" nowadays. For years, GM was happy if its cars were just in the discussion, while it focused its efforts on trucks and SUVs.

We know where that kind of thinking led: bankruptcy court.

Under current CEO Dan Akerson, GM's goal is to be top of class in every class. That may sound like auto executive lip service, but they're really serious about this. That's why Akerson and GM's North America chief, Mark Reuss, ordered a quick redo.

Last year's Cadillac ATS showed that GM could build a sedan good enough to go head to head with the best in its class – which in that case is one of the best cars in the world, BMW's (NASDAQOTH: BAMXF  ) 3-Series.

The revised Malibu faces a different kind of competition than the Cadillac, but it's no less fierce. Toyota and Honda are the perennial leaders in this class and have huge followings of intensely loyal customers. And Ford's Fusion has been a big hit – so big that Ford is adding a second factory to keep up with demand.

This new Malibu will have to be more than just good to make an impression on that crowd. On paper, it looks like a bunch of small changes that could add up to a big improvement. We'll know more once reviewers get a chance to drive it.

But just the fact that it exists is a big deal. Old GM's management wouldn't have bothered to do anything like this. They would have been happy to cut prices and crank up fleet sales and pat themselves on the back for another "best-seller".

Clearly, that approach doesn't fly anymore at GM. And that says a lot about how much the company has changed under Dan Akerson.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Life's Normal Until the Next Surprise Hits

One of the things that make humans human is the tendency to seek out patterns. In fact, we often spot coincidences and call them patterns when none in fact exist.

Our pursuit of patterns can lead us to define the recent past as the "new normal," a definition that can vary greatly based on personal circumstance.

When we get focused on the new normal, we forget to think about the possibility of surprises. After all, our brains naturally want to cut through the complexity and settle into a routine.

But the reality is that surprises will happen no matter how we define normal because life has no set or guaranteed pattern. Surprises interrupt our definition of the new normal and cause us to reset our expectations.

If history tells us they will happen, though, why are we so surprised by the surprises?

There are at least two reasons:

The origin of the next surprise often looks different than the last one. The longer and more pronounced a new normal seems, the less it takes to surprise us.

Nassim Taleb illustrates this problem with the story of a turkey. For every day of a turkey's life, he's fed on a regular basis and comes to expect that his daily pattern of being fed is a general rule. Imagine this turkey's surprise on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving when this pattern changes.

The turkey had no reason to think the pattern would change. Yet it did just that with no warning, and with serious consequences for the turkey.

Clearly, you don't want to be a turkey.

Granted, we're often asked to make decisions, particularly financial ones, based on a degree of uncertainty. To counter this uncertainty, we commit one of the classic behavioral mistakes by looking to the recent past, identifying a pattern and projecting it into the future. The danger of this behavior is that we're making decisions based on the new normal and often fail to include the potential for surprise.

As you make plans, it's worth evaluating your current normal. How are you spending your money? How much are you saving? How are you investing? Maybe you don't need to make any changes, but it's worth considering whether you have a backup plan for the next surprise.

Because it will come, after all. We just have no idea what it will look like.

A version of this post appeared previously at The New York Times.

Carl Richards is a financial planner and the director of investor education for the BAM ALLIANCE, a community of more than 130 independent wealth management firms throughout the United States. Visit Behavior Gap for more of Carl's sketches and writings.

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Draghi’s Dangerous German Stand-Off

I've written a number of columns over the last two months on the growing rift between Mario Draghi and Germany, for example here and here.  Now Reuters has published a detailed report that provides plenty of fresh color on the deteriorating relationship, not least between the European Central Bank president and Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany's Bundesbank, which is said to be "totally rotten, broken beyond repair."  The risks arising from this rift cannot be overstated.

The reality is that Mario Draghi brought this situation upon himself. He overplayed his hand in August and September, first in his speech at the annual central banker's jamboree at Jackson Hole, when he effectively told Germany to boost spending to deliver a fiscal stimulus to the eurozone, and secondly in September, when he got the ECB to back a QE-lite program and introduced the size of the ECB’s balance sheet as a policy target, thereby appearing to pre-commit the ECB to buying government bonds. These two sudden shifts took his colleagues, the markets and, crucially, German officials by surprise.

What has struck me in the intervening weeks is that opposition to Mr. Draghi’s direction of travel is equally strong in both Berlin and Frankfurt: in other words, he is up against both the Bundesbank and the German government. Although the Bundesbank has been careful not to close the door to QE, it is very hard to imagine the circumstances under which it would ever give its consent—and what makes the Bundesbank such a formidable opponent for Mr. Draghi isn’t the formal power that it possesses, which is limited, but the extent to which it shapes and reflects German public opinion.

By the same token, German officials have made it abundantly clear to me that if Mr. Draghi ever tries to buy government bonds, the ECB should be under no illusions that it will face multiple legal challenges from Germany and that the finance ministry will come under intense pressure to mount a challenge itself. If Mr. Draghi didn’t know it before, he must now realize that the political firestorm that would surround any decision to launch QE would be so destabilizing and do such damage to the ECB's credibility that it would undermine whatever good he hoped to achieve.

As I wrote in my column on Monday, this fight over QE in is shaping up to be—alongside the equally brutal fight over the French and Italian budgets—the defining ideological struggle over the future of Europe. Mr. Draghi got the job because he managed to convince the German public that he was more German than the Germans. The suspicion is hardening that he may be Italian after all.

This standoff with Germany has already damaged Mr. Draghi: at October’s ECB news conference, he was forced to row back on what he’d said the previous month, denying that the ECB had any target for the size of its balance sheet and thereby confusing the markets. At the IMF meetings in Washington this month, I got the distinct impression that a orchestrated “Support Mario” operation was under way, as loyal policy makers tried to explain away the inconsistencies between his September and October statements, and die-hard QE enthusiasts such as the International Monetary Fund suddenly seemed to go quiet on the subject while going out of their way to say what a good job Mr. Draghi was doing.

Indeed, the more people praised him, the more I felt sorry for him. Over the past three years, Mr. Draghi has proved himself to be a skillful central banker and a formidable politician. But he now finds himself forced to take sides between those who believe that QE-driven devaluation, cheaper borrowing costs and higher inflation offer the only path out of Europe's current malaise and those who believe not only that QE will do little to stimulate sustainable growth but that it is a backdoor route to a mutualization of eurozone debts and monetary financing of governments illegal under EU treaties. Worse, he has revealed his own allegiances, raising expectations he may now not be able to meet.

That is not a position in which any central banker would want to find himself.

Few benefit from Obama's student loan program

  Three ways to keep student debt down WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) Amid great fanfare, President Obama on Monday announced plans to help more graduates tackle student loan debt.

However, the number of students that will benefit is like a drop in the bucket.

"We're probably not going to have many new borrowers saying: I'm going to qualify for this," said Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of Edvisors Network, an educational resource for students.

What the President announced wasn't a new program; it's an expansion of cheaper terms of an existing loan repayment program. And it won't become available until December 2015.

People who took out loans before Oct. 2007 will qualify for the program. It lowers the amount that graduates pay, capping repayments at 10% of income. Currently, their payments are capped at 15% of income.

Nearly 5 million borrowers would qualify under this expansion.

Many graduates who took out loans after Oct. 2007 already qualify for the 10% cap.

Struggling to pay off student debt?

However, it has never been that popular -- Only 1.8 million borrowers nationwide have enrolled in similar repayment programs. That compares to 40 million with student loan debt nationwide, according to federal data.

Why? Because few people know about these programs, even though this is the second time in three years that President Obama has used his bully pulpit to promote them.

Also, the programs target a narrow base. They are designed to only help the poorest borrowers living on the edge. "No more than 10% of student loan borrowers qualify for the programs," Kantrowitz said.

Could Elizabeth Warren have made it today?

Still, borrowers catch another break -- monthly payments are based on income that is at least 150% above the poverty line.

The 2014 poverty threshold for a single person is $11,670. So, a graduate living alone would make payments capped at 10% of any dollars made above $17,505.

The programs can't help borrowers with private loans, which comprise about 15% of all student loans, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. They also can't help borrowers who have already defaulted on student loans.

New borrowers of student loans! can also enroll in the repayment plan called Pay as You Earn, which also forgives loans after 20 years, rather than the earlier limit of 25 years.

One big question is how will the administration pay for the expansion. In past budgets, the administration has suggested it would cost several billion dollars to expand the program.

U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said on Monday "we actually don't know the cost yet."

Why Organovo Is a Better Buy Than 3D Systems

Shares of almost all 3D printing companies have appreciated considerably this year. Even though analysts are expecting 3D printing to be worth more than $5 billion by 2018, I don't think investing in 3D printing companies, mainly 3D Systems (DDD), is a good idea. Investors have bid up 3D Systems in the hope that its technology will revolutionize the industrial manufacturing process and it will also have a massive presence in the consumer segment. However, I don't think that 3D Systems will be able to fulfill these expectations any time soon, and it may take many years to justify its valuation. Therefore, in my view, investors who want to see good returns in the long run should invest their money in Organovo (ONVO) rather than 3D Systems. Let's take a look why.

Why 3D Systems Is Overhyped

As I already said, investors have bid up 3D Systems in the hope that it will revolutionize industrial printing and also that 3D printers will become an everyday household object in the future, but I don't see this happening anytime soon. I have already discussed why 3D Systems will not revolutionize industrial manufacturing in my previous article. Now, let's take a look at the reasons why I think that 3D printers will never become an everyday household item.

Unrealistic Expectations

Of course, there are many things you can make with the help of a 3D printer, but people seem to ignore the fact that they will need a very expensive high-end 3D printer, which use resins or lasers, to print these objects. Many people blindly believe that they will be able to manufacture a range of products on a low-end printer (which costs roughly $800), which is definitely not true.

Limited Materials

As of now, 3D printers can only print in plastic, resins and certain metals. These printers are not capable of printing products in mixed materials and the majority of the products that are used today are manufactured by a combination of materials, and this adds to the limitations of 3D printing.

Complex usability

3D printing is not a user-friendly process and you will need a CAD model to print any desired product. And it goes without saying that you will need to learn how CAD works in order to make a model and mastering the program can take years. Therefore, it is certainly not rational to assume that 3D printers will become an everyday household item in the future.

Strength

3D printers use layer-by-layer technique for manufacturing an object, which ensures homogeneous strength. The product which has been manufactured may look exactly the way you wanted it and will have uniform strength throughout, but it will be weaker than the traditionally manufactured products.

Why Organovo May Yield Better Returns

It doesn't take a genius to point out that all 3D printing companies are overvalued and Organovo is no exception to it. However, while shares of 3D Systems have appreciated because of hype and unrealistic expectations, Organovo has grown primarily due to increase in institutional ownership. Therefore, even though it is overpriced, I think investors should consider buying it as its value may not come down because of higher institutional ownership.

Moreover, since Organovo has embarked upon a completely different approach to 3D printing, it doesn't have to face stiff competition. By comparison, 3D Systems will have to compete against the likes of Stratasys (SSYS), Voxeljet (VJET), and ExOne (XONE). In addition, since Organovo's technology is different and unique, its growth will not be restricted by the aforementioned problems.

Moving onto the growth prospects, Scientia Advisors has estimated that it sees a market opportunity worth more than $500 million for Organovo by 2018. As of now, the company has been successful in its attempt to develop functional liver tissues and it aims to broaden its portfolio to heart and kidney cells. For a company that presently has almost no revenue, this is a pretty big opportunity.

Furthermore, it is well known that drug companies risk losing billions of dollars when one of their drugs enters the market and then fails clinical trials, primarily because of liver toxicity. To solve this problem, Organovo is planning to make bio-printed liver assays available for purchase by December 2014. I recently read a bearish article claiming that these liver assays do not hold much promise because liver assays are already being sold; however this is not true.

Organovo's liver assays are nearly twice the thickness and can be printed with small lining of blood vessels, thereby making them a much better option for clinical testing than the presently available assays. In addition, Organovo has generated 3D printed livers which can last for almost 40 days (700% longer than its previous 3D printed liver).

Also, additional data shows that Organovo's 3D liver assays exhibit dose-dependent responses to acetaminophen, an identified liver toxicant, and that the poisonous effects can be assessed using both standard screening assays and histopathological assessment of the treated tissue. The data demonstrates that these liver assays can potentially have value in assessing toxicology problems in human liver over a lengthy period of time, including sub-acute and multiple dose effects.

Conclusion

New investors have no doubt lost a lot of money in 3D Systems. However, the prospects might not be able to justify the valuation going forward. In comparison, Organovo is doing something pretty unique and it could prove to be a better buy for the long run. The market opportunity is huge for Organovo, as we saw above, and the stock looks set to yield good returns in the long run.

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ONVO STOCK PRICE CHART 6.35 (1y: +47%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='ONVO',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1368594000000,4.32],[1368680400000,4.03],[1368766800000,4.27],[1369026000000,4.2],[1369112400000,4.34],[1369198800000,4.17],[1369285200000,4.184],[1369371600000,4.25],[1369717200000,4.41],[1369803600000,4.32],[1369890000000,4.31],[1369976400000,4.29],[1370235600000,4.29],[1370322000000,4.19],[1370408400000,3.98],[1370494800000,4.01],[1370581200000,4],[1370840400000,4.09],[1370926800000,4.14],[1371013200000,4.12],[1371099600000,4.02],[1371186000000,4.06],[1371445200000,4.05],[1371531600000,4],[1371618000000,4.03],[1371704400000,3.99],[1371790800000,4.05],[1372050000000,3.86],[1372136400000,3.75],[1372222800000,3.78],[1372309200000,3.85],[1372395600000,3.78],[1372654800000,3.

Pending Home Sales Jump, End Losing Streak

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images WASHINGTON -- Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose in March for the first time in nine months, a sign the housing market could be stabilizing after suffering a setback from a rise in interest rates and a severe winter. The National Association of Realtors said Monday its pending home sales index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 3.4 percent to 97.4. The increase beat economists' expectations for a 1 percent advance. These contracts usually become sales after a month or two, and March's rise suggested home resales could rebound in the months ahead. Sales stumbled last summer after that the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would soon reduce its economic stimulus efforts, pushing interest rates higher. A harsh winter also helped keep potential buyers out of the market. "The stronger pending home sales report hints at resurgence in housing market momentum during the typically busier spring buying season," said Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities. Goldberg said the data suggested housing would continue to support U.S. economic growth in the coming months. The U.S. economy hit a slow patch over the winter, which was particularly harsh in much of the country, but growth is expected to rebound during the rest of 2014. The U.S. Labor Department is expected to report on Friday the economy created 210,000 jobs in April. Prices for U.S. stocks opened higher Monday, while the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds rose following the release of the housing data. Existing home sales had fallen to their lowest levels in more than 1½ years, but details of Monday's report suggested the downward trend in sales had probably run its course, with housing inventory rising and more first-time buyers coming into the market. Despite last month's surge, pending home sales were still down 7.9 percent compared to March of last year. Contracts increased in the Northeast, in the South and in the West. They fell in the Midwest.

5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share.

But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

>>3 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars



The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, it's large institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity, but it's twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy This Week

Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look five stocks whose insiders have been doing some big buying per SEC filings.

Ruby Tuesday

One stock that insiders are jumping into here is Ruby Tuesday (RT), which owns and operates Ruby Tuesday, Lime Fresh Mexican, GrillMarlin & Ray's and Wok Hay casual dining restaurants. Insiders are buying this stock into notable strength, since shares are higher by 34% over the last three months.

Ruby Tuesday has a market cap of $456 million and an enterprise value of $658 million. This stock trades at a cheap valuation, with a price-to-sales of 0.39 and a price-to-book of 1.00. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -439.1%, and for next year it's pegged at 84.6%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $44.47 million and its total debt is $266.87 million.

>>3 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

A director just bought 50,000 shares, or about $342,000 worth of stock, at $6.85 per share.

From a technical perspective, RT is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $5.17 to its recent high of $7.76 a share. During that uptrend, shares of RT have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of RT within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

If you're bullish on RT, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 200-day at $6.71 and then once breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $7.76 to $7.96 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average volume of 706,783 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then RT will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from July of 2013 that started near $9.50. If that gap gets filled with strong upside volume flows, then RT could easily trend well north of $10 a share.

Equinix

Another stock that insiders are active in here is Equinix (EQIX), which provides data center services to protect and connect the information assets for the enterprises, financial services companies, and content and network providers. Insiders are buying this stock into modest strength, since shares are up by 7.2% over the last six months.

>>3 Big Tech Stocks Getting Big Attention

Equinix has a market cap of $8.9 billion and an enterprise value of $12.3 billion. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 95 and a forward price-to-earnings of 31. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 89.4%, and for next year it's pegged at 62%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $631.70 million and its total debt is $4.16 billion.

A beneficial owner just bought 71,900 shares, or about $12.34 million worth of stock, at $171.70 per share.

From a technical perspective, EQIX is currently trending its 200-day moving average and just below its 50-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock recently started to spike back above its 200-day moving average with solid upside volume flows. That spike is now starting to push shares of EQIX within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels.

If you're in the bull camp on EQIX, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 200-day at $177.06 or above more key near-term support at $169.95 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $183.73 to $186.42 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 955,098 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then EQIX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $194.99 to $196.20 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give EQIX a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance level at $205.50 a share.

Sears Holdings

One retail department store player that insiders are loading up on here is Sears Holdings (SHLD), which operates as a retailer in the U.S. and Canada. Insiders are buying this stock into weakness, since shares are off by 25% over the last six months.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Sears Holdings has a market cap of $4.4 billion and an enterprise value of $7.3 million. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a price-to-sales of 0.12 and a price-to-book of 2.48. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 0.70%, and for next year it's pegged at 0.70%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $1.03 billion and its total debt is $4.25 billion.

A director just bought 475,000 shares, or about $15.94 million worth of stock, at $33.56 per share.

From a technical perspective, SHLD is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $30.50 to $31.26 a share. Following that bottom, shares of SHLD have started to uptrend and move back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That move has now pushed shares of SHLD within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on SHLD, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $36.43 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $42.47 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.57 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SHLD will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $52.50 to $54.50 a share.

Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores

Another stock that insiders are active in love with here is Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (SHOS), which is engaged in the retail sale of home appliances, hardware, tools and lawn and garden equipment in the U.S. Insiders are buying this stock into notable weakness, since shares are down by 18.9% over the last six months.

>>3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores has a market cap of $528 million and an enterprise value of $584 million. This stock trades at reasonable valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings 15. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $23.48 million and its total debt is $99.86 million.

A beneficial owner just bought 173,574 shares, or about $3.57 million worth of stock, at $20.62 per share.

From a technical perspective, SHOS is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been uptrending a bit over the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $19.75 to its recent high of $24.63 a share. During that move, shares of SHOS have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs. That move has now pushed shares of SHOS within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on SHOS, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $21 and then once it breaks out above its 50-day at $23.29 a share and once it clears more near-term overhead resistance levels at $25 to $26.31 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 168,010 shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then SHOS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $29.27 to $32.50 a share.

Esterline Technologies

One final stock with some decent insider buying is Esterline Technologies (ESL), which designs, manufactures and markets engineered products and systems primarily for aerospace and defense customers in the U.S. and internationally. Insiders are buying this stock into big strength, since shares are up sharply by 37% over the last six months.

Esterline Technologies has a market cap of $3.4 billion and an enterprise value of $3.9 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 20 and a forward price-to-earnings of 16. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 0.90%, and for next year it's pegged at 14.6%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $208.44 million and its total debt is $706.29 million.

A director just bought 8,778 shares, or about $907,000 worth of stock, at $103.36 per share.
From a technical perspective, ESL is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $102.47 to $101.63 a share. Following that bottom, shares of ESL have started to spike higher back above its 50-day moving average. That move is starting to push shares of ESL within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

If you're bullish on ESL, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above those double bottom support levels and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $111.45 to its 52-week high of $113.06 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 222,378 shares. If that breakout starts soon, then ESL will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory above $113.06, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $120 to $125 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>A Small-Cap Stock With Very Big Potential

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Ready to Explode

>>Side-Step the Selling With These 5 Big Trades

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

4 Stocks Under $10 Triggering Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stock Charts to Buy for Gains in March

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

CEL-SCI (CVM) is engaged in the research and development of drugs and vaccines. This stock closed up 12.5% to $1.26 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.13-$1.30

52-Week Range: $0.53-$3.10

Thursday's Volume: 3.81 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.04 million

>>5 Bargain Bin Stocks to Buy in March

From a technical perspective, CVM skyrocketed sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $1.10 with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of CVM into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $1.23. This move is quickly pushing shares of CVM within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if CVM manages to take out Thursday's high of $1.30 to more near-term overhead resistance at $1.33 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CVM as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $1.13 or above more support at $1.10 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.04 million shares. If breakout materializes soon, then CVM will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $1.47 to more resistance at $2.

MEI Pharma (MEIP), a development-stage oncology company, focuses on the clinical development of therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. This stock closed up 1.5% to $9.80 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $9.39-$10.00

52-Week Range: $6.52-$12.45

Thursday's Volume: 292,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 121,015

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy in March

From a technical perspective, MEIP jumped modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock briefly flirted with a breakout trade, since shares of MEIP tested some key near-term overhead resistance at $9.85. Shares of MEIP have been uptrending strong over the last few days, with shares moving higher from its low near $8.40 to its intraday high of $10 with strong upside volume. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if MEIP manages to take out Thursday's high of $10 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MEIP as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $9.39 or above $9 and then once it sustains a move or close above $10 with volume that hits near or above 121,015 shares. If we get that move soon, then MEIP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $10.95 to its 52-week high at $12.45.

Guanwei Recycling (GPRC) engages in the manufacture and distribution of low-density polyethylene and other recycled plastics products primarily in the People's Republic of China and internationally. This stock closed up 6.7% to $3.02 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.85-$3.19

52-Week Range: $1.14-$3.60

Thursday's Volume: 346,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 58,952

From a technical perspective, GPRC spiked sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $2.76 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of GPRC into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $2.86. Shares of GPRC are now quickly moving within range of triggering an even bigger breakout trade. That trade will hit if GPRC manages to take out Thursday's high of $3.19 to more resistance at $3.37 and then once it clears its 52-week high at $3.60 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GPRC as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $2.85 or above its 50-day at $2.76 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 58,952 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then GPRC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.90 to $4.20, or even $4.50.

China Xiniya Fashion (XNY) designs, manufactures and sells men's business casual and business formal apparel and accessories to retail customers in the People's Republic of China. This stock closed up 9.4% to $1.28 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.19-$1.32

52-Week Range: $0.92-$2.19

Thursday's Volume: 347,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 59,862

>>5 Hated Stocks You Should Love

From a technical perspective, XNY soared sharply higher here back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $1.25 with strong upside volume. This stock recently formed a triple bottom chart pattern at $1.11, $1.13 and at $1.15. Following that bottom, shares of XNY have started to spike sharply higher and it's now quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if XNY manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.34 to $1.39 and then once it clears more resistance at $1.44 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in XNY as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $1.19 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 59,862 shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then XNY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.68 to $1.80. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give XNY a chance to tag its 52-week high at $2.19.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>4 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

>>5 Short-Squeeze Stocks That Could Pop in March

>>5 Ways to Trade the Ukraine Crisis

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Domino's Stacks Up, Target Misses, and Winter Offically Gets the Blame for Everything

Links worth snacking on: Chart of the Week: The six greatest investors of all time. BlackRock Blog: Three ways men and women make different investment decisions. Harvard Business Review: Three mistakes to avoid when networking. Slate: How the burrito is the future of the American economy. Freakonomics: Want to win Olympic medals? Fix your economy. Business Insider: What's inside the $85,000 Academy Awards nominee gift bag? Quartz: Will J. Crew have an IPO, be sold, or merge (with Uniqlo)? Modern Luxury: Young banking bros are heading West. Sorry, Jennifer Lawrence. You were phenomenal in American Hustle, but we think that February deserves a gold statue from the Academy -- not only was it the Dow's best month since January 2013, but the S&P 500 closed above a record 1,850 points for the first time ever. With those kinds of performances, Wall Street should be throwing February an after-party worthy of a Miley Cyrus publicity stunt.   1. The fourth-quarter earnings winner ...
Domino's Pizza's (NYSE: DPZ  )  earnings were double-stuffed like their crusts, jumping 18% from last year as the chain opens up new ovens internationally. The U.S. market is tight-packed with pizza spots, from your favorite $1-a-slice deal to luxurious brick-oven operations, so the 570-plus new stores abroad are bringing home the bread for Domino's.   But what about expectations? Analysts have already been pretty hungry and bullish on Domino's over 2013. Wall Street was already projecting profit growth of 16% for Domino's and has sent the stock up 63% in the past year.   To show the love, Domino's isn't doing a new extra-pepperoni deal, but increasing its dividend by $0.25 per share. The news is a sign that a growing Domino's is ready to return cash to shareholders as its spreads the dough into new lands.
2. ... and the fourth-quarter earnings loser
Target (NYSE: TGT  )  earnings slid a whopping 46% after the 40-million-credit card security breach in November -- that $520 million drop in profits is the result of a 3.8% sales dip.   The worst about this all for Target is timing. Not only did the credit card fiasco occur the week of Black Friday, amplifying the number of customers affected, but it also extended a dark curtain of mistrust over the retailer during the all-important holiday season -- the 5.5% fall in overall transactions at Target was the largest its suffered since it began reporting the statistic in 2008.   So how's Target dealin'? According to the bigwig execs running the earnings report, Target said it plans to "absorb breach-related costs," which could reach hundreds of millions of bucks in 2014. The first step to doing so? Cutting back on their share buyback plan for the time being.

3. Mergers, acquisitions, deals, and IPO drama
In the world of suits, Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (NASDAQ: JOSB  ) rejected the takeover offer from competitor Men's Wearhouse (NYSE: MW  ) , which was for $1.8 billion plus six free jackets -- though Joseph says it's still open to a merger. J. Crew got pseudo-hipster investors nationwide drooling on rumors that it was exploring IPO options with several major banks. And Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) struck a Hollywood-worthy deal with cable mammoth Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) to use its massive broadband network, improving streaming service to its 33 million American subscribers.

4. The Fed admits winter hurt the economy ...
For all of 2014 so far, the two things we've referenced the most are our support of the U.S. men's ice hockey team and the absurd degree to which winter temperatures have been affecting U.S. econ data, from manufacturing to the housing market to retail sales. Well, on Thursday, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that had ironically been delayed because of the Valentine's Day blizzard, new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen discussed how multiple polar vortexes had affected consumers -- and slightly slowed the New Year's economy.

5. ... And econ data was mixed
Speaking of econ data, most economic indicators for the U.S. have been unimpressive over the past six weeks, despite all the momentum of 2013. This week, however, featured a mixed batch of reports that surprised most investors. On the downside, U.S. fourth-quarter GDP for the final three months of 2013 was revised down from 3.2% growth to a 2.4% pace, while consumer confidence levels slipped slightly in January, according to research firm The Conference Board. And while December home prices surged more than 13%, making 2013 the biggest annual gain since 2005, sales of new homes unexpectedly jumped 9.6% when analysts had expected a slowdown.

What MarketSnacks is checking out this week: Monday: Motor vehicle sales, ISM Manufacturing Index Tuesday: Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks; earnings: RadioShack Wednesday: The Fed's Beige Book; ADP February employment report; earnings: Adidas Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; earnings: Skullcandy Friday: February non-farm payrolls report

MarketSnacks Fact of the Day: Shock Top is America's fastest growing "craft beer," with a 64% jump in production between 2011 and 2012 -- but it's made by the world's biggest brewer.

As originally published on MarketSnacks.com

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